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When does price
put people off?

We examined where willingness to buy drops as prices rise for a multipack cocoa sandwich cake and a chocolate-coated hazelnut wafer. Brand and SKU details are withheld.

1,000Synthetic consumers

2Product formats

13Tested prices

A lower price does not win everyone over.

Averaged across the two products, 20% of the panel would not buy at any tested price. Among those open to buying, demand drops sharply beyond a threshold.

Multipack

Multipack Cocoa Sandwich Cake

79.17 TLAverage willingness to pay · 799 observations

Expected demand by price

76.4%

65 TL

68.6%

70 TL

59.8%

75 TL

45.2%

80 TL

17.8%

85 TL

6.4%

90 TL

1.8%

95 TL

The sharpest drop in demand is in the 80–85 TRY band: 27.3 percentage points.

Explore product results

Single serving

Chocolate-coated Hazelnut Wafer

41.89 TLAverage willingness to pay · 801 observations

Expected demand by price

74.8%

30 TL

59.5%

35 TL

52.2%

40 TL

41.2%

45 TL

50 TL

1.4%

55 TL

The sharpest drop in demand is in the 45–50 TRY band: 33.2 percentage points.

Explore product results

The products have different pack formats, so their absolute prices should not be compared directly.

Revenue peaks at the lowest tested price.

Expected revenue peaked at the lowest tested price for both products. This indicates a direction, not a definitive optimum: lower prices were not tested.

Method and interpretation

Synthetic panel

The same 1,000 synthetic personas evaluated both products. These are directional simulation results, not a survey of real participants or observed sales data.

Average willingness to pay (WTP)

The average covers only responses with a WTP value: 799 observations for the cake and 801 for the wafer. A missing value means no willingness to buy at any tested price. Those willing at every tested price are recorded at the highest tested price, so their true WTP may be higher.

Expected demand

The percentage shown is the model’s expected purchase probability at each tested price. It is not an average of raw yes/no responses or an observed sales conversion rate.

Expected revenue

Calculated as price × expected demand × panel size. It is for comparing tested prices within the same product, not a sales or turnover forecast.

Test range

Revenue peaks at the lowest tested price for both products. Lower prices were not tested, so this is not a definitive optimum. Different pack formats also mean absolute prices should not be compared directly.

Segment results

Average WTP and best tested price are shown as reported for each shopping-behaviour and socioeconomic group. Segment probability curves are not in this dataset, so segment peaks cannot be recalculated independently. Consistency within the data file does not mean the model’s research validity has been verified.